Commodity prices fall after Trump elected US President

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SINGAPORE/LONDON: Commodities from oil and gas to metals and grains dropped on Wednesday as the dollar rallied and victory for Republican Donald Trump in the US presidential election stoked concerns about tariffs and economic growth.

Trump recaptured the White House by securing more than the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency, following a campaign of dark rhetoric that deepened the polarization in the country.

Oil prices fell by more than 1% , on pressure from the U.S. dollar rally, which was set for its biggest one-day rise since March 2023 against major peers.
Investors believe Trump’s presidency will bolster the dollar as interest rates may need to remain high to combat inflation that would stem from new tariffs.

A stronger US Dollar (USD) makes greenback-denominated commodities such as oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Precious metals also fell, with gold sliding to a near three-week low, while copper lost more than 2%, making it the worst performer of the base metals complex.

“Gold will be torn between the risk of rising inflation, potentially slowing the pace of U.S. rate cuts, as tariffs are rolled out and continued demand for safe haven assets,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said.

Commodity prices started to fall overnight as traders started to price in the likelihood of a Trump win.

“This scenario is expected to bring about the promised tariffs on imported goods, particularly targeting China, potentially triggering a new wave of trade tensions and economic disruptions,” Hansen added.

However, Trump could renew sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, removing oil barrels from the market, which would be bullish, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Iran exports about 1.3 million barrels per day.

Benchmark European gas prices also fell by nearly 3% amid concerns about gas supplies and Trump’s stance on the Middle East conflict and Russia-Ukraine war.

China’s industrial metals and steel industries could face headwinds as Trump has pledged to impose blanket 60% tariffs on Chinese goods to boost U.S. manufacturing.

“China’s steel prices will undertake more downward pressure if Trump wins the election, and domestic steelmakers may face even more severe losses,” said Ge Xin, deputy director at Lange Steel Research Centre.

“This is because Trump will be more aggressive in terms of measures against China.”
The copper market was pricing in the possible roll-back of U.S. electrification initiatives, including subsidies for electric vehicles, which would dampen demand.

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Agricultural commodities were also hit, with soybean futures in particular trading lower. Wheat and corn were seen as less exposed to renewed trade tensions with China.

A stronger dollar makes U.S. grain more expensive overseas, while tariffs proposed by Trump could disrupt U.S. agricultural trade, with soybeans particularly reliant on sales to leading importer China.

There are also fears that China could respond with retaliatory measures, potentially reducing U.S. exports of key crops and creating downward pressure on prices.

Shares in European clean energy companies also fell as Trump has vowed to scrap offshore wind projects through an executive order on his first day in office.

ECP summons Hafiz Naeem for ‘violating’ election code of conduct

KARACHI: The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) summoned Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan Ameer Hafiz Naeemur Rehman for allegedly violating the election code of conduct, ARY News reported.

District monitoring officer Muhammad Saleem Abbasi summoned Hafiz Naeem to appear before the election watchdog on November 6 to submit his reply.

The notice issued to Hafiz Naeem specifically mentioned a ban on large gatherings and events in Gulberg Town ahead of the local government by-election. It added that ‘Bano Qabil’ test gathering was held on November 1 in the Gulberg locality of Karachi, which according to the ECP violated the electoral guidelines.

The ECP finalised a plan to establish three-tier Election Monitoring and Control Centres (EMCC) to oversee the local government by-elections in 26 Sindh districts being held on November 14.

The Election Monitoring and Control Centres (EMCC) will be set up at the provincial, divisional, and district levels to register to address public complaints of candidates and people.

According to an ECP official, all EMCCs will be activated 24 hours before the local government by-elections and will remain operational until the final result is announced.

The provincial election monitoring and control centre will oversee the electoral process round the clock from the office of the provincial election commissioner, while the regional election monitoring and control centre will monitor elections at the divisional level, managed by regional election commissioners, to ensure transparency and fairness in the upcoming local government by-elections.

At the district level, the EMCC will operate under the supervision of District Returning Officers to monitor and address complaints during the upcoming local government by-elections.

Ranbir Kapoor’s ‘Animal Park’ gets major update

Bollywood, Ranbir Kapoor, Animal Park, Sandeep Reddy Vanga

Bollywood actor Ranbir Kapoor’s upcoming film “Animal Park” got a major update from Bhushan Kumar who co-produced the 2023 film.

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Kapoor left audiences stunned with his intense performance as Ranvijay Singh in Sandeep Reddy Vanga’s ‘Animal.’

Released in 2023, the movie became one of the highest-grossing films of the year. The producers of the film later announced a sequel titled ‘Animal Park.’

In a recent interview with an Indian media outlet, Bhushan Kumar revealed that the sequel is on track and work on the film will begin after filmmaker Sandeep Reddy Vanga completes his project with South star Prabhas.

According to Kumar, work on ‘Animal Park’ will begin within the next six months of the completion of Vanga’s next project.

While ‘Animal’ was criticised for its violent storyline and bold scenes, Sandeep Reddy Vanga has asserted that ‘Animal Park’ would be ‘darker’ and ‘meaner’ than Animal.

The notable filmmaker had announced that the film would begin shooting in 2026, however, Bhushan Kumar’s statement has left the fans excited about the upcoming sequel led by Ranbir Kapoor.

In an earlier interview, the Bollywood star revealed that Vanga narrated a couple of scenes from the upcoming sequel to him, leaving him excited to begin shooting for the film.

Meanwhile, Indian media reports said that Ranbir Kapoor will reportedly share the screen with Bollywood A-lister Shraddha Kapoor as YRF is set to reboot their action franchise with ‘Dhoom 4’.

Reportedly, ‘Dhoom 4’ is officially in the pre-production stage at Aditya Chopra’s Yash Raj Films and Ranbir Kapoor is on board to lead the film in a negative character.

Arexvy: Canada approves GSK’s RSV vaccine

GSK has received Canadian approval for Arexvy, its respiratory syncytial virus vaccine in adults between 50 and 59, the company said on Tuesday, making it the country’s first authorized RSV shot for that age group.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention decided to hold off recommending the use of the vaccine, Arexvy, in adults under 60, despite the Food and Drug Administration approving it for that age group.

Arexvy is already approved in the United States and the European Union for use in adults between 50 and 59. It was previously approved only for those 60 and older in Canada, as is Pfizer’s RSV vaccine, Abrysvo.

RSV, which typically causes cold-like symptoms, is a leading cause of pneumonia in toddlers and older adults.

Hospitalizations associated with RSV in adults start to increase at the age of 50, GSK’s interim Canada medical director, Michelle Horn, said.

Among Canadian adults 50 and older who are hospitalized with RSV, about 98% have at least one chronic condition, according to GSK.

The company has also filed regulatory submissions for the approval of Arexvy in adults aged 50 to 59 in Japan and other countries.

It expects to release data from two studies of the vaccine in adults 18 and above later in 2024.

US Elections 2024 Results: Historical voting patterns in swing states

US Election Results: Swing states history and 2024 poll indications

As the 2024 US presidential election is underway, attention is focused on seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states have historically been influential in determining election outcomes due to their pattern of swinging between Democratic and Republican candidates.

Election Day commenced on November 5, 2024, following an extraordinary and, for many, unsettling presidential race that could either position Kamala Harris as the first female president in U.S. history or facilitate a comeback for Donald Trump that might reverberate globally.

Arizona (11 Electoral Votes)

Historical Context:

Arizona has fluctuated between the major political parties over the past two decades. After consistently backing Republican candidates from 2000 to 2016, it shifted to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 by a slight margin.

Current Scenario:

Recent polls indicate that Kamala Harris is slightly ahead with 49% compared to Donald Trump’s 45%. Arizona is a vital state for both parties, with its substantial Hispanic population often serving as an essential voting bloc.

These battleground states are critical in influencing the electoral landscape. Their total electoral votes (93) could easily determine the outcome of the election. Historically, tight races in these states have highlighted their significance. For instance, the 2000 election depended on Florida’s 25 electoral votes.

Marriott trims 2024 profit forecast on sluggish travel demand

Marriott International cut its annual profit forecast on Monday as weak domestic travel in China overshadows strong group and international demand, sending its shares down 3.4% in early trading.

Hotel operators have signaled weak demand in the world’s second-biggest economy nation during the reported quarter amid efforts by the government to boost consumer sentiment and restricted pricing power.

Severe weather and wealthier Chinese customers traveling abroad also weighed on domestic performance, Marriott said.

Marriott said it expects China to post negative revenue per available room (RevPAR), or room revenue, growth in the fourth quarter and for the full year.

System-wide RevPAR, an important metric in the hospitality industry, fell 7.9% in Greater China in the third quarter.

Marriott forecast full-year adjusted profit to be between $9.19 and $9.27 per share, compared with the $9.23 to $9.40 it previously estimated.

Global leisure room revenue remained flat year-over-year as higher-end travelers boosted results across regions including the U.S.

“Group remained the stand out customer segment, with global group RevPAR rising 10% in the quarter and on pace to rise 8% for full year 2024,” said CEO Anthony Capuano in a statement.

The Ritz-Carlton operator expects fourth-quarter room revenue growth of 2% to 3% and backed its 2024 guidance of 3% to 4%.

“Decelerating RevPAR growth is causing EBITDA estimates to slowly bleed lower,” said Joseph Greff, analyst at J.P. Morgan, noting 2024 EBITDA estimates have been lowered for a second quarter in a row.

The company expects full-year adjusted EBITDA between $4.93 billion and $4.96 billion.

Adjusted profit of $2.26 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 beat analysts’ average expectation of $2.31

Total quarterly revenue came in at $6.26 billion, compared with analysts’ estimates of $6.27 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Marriott expects a 6.5% increase in net rooms additions in 2024.

Another Indian fighter jet crashes during training

Another MiG-29 fighter aircraft of the Indian Air Force crashed on Monday in a field in Uttar Pradesh’s Agra during a normal training after it met a ‘system glitch’, local media reported.

The pilot ejected the plane to save his life while the Indian Air Force ordered Court of Inquiry to ascertain the cause of the crash.

Images appeared on social media sites showing the fuselage of the crashed airplane engulfed in flames and blowing a heavy cloud of smoke. A big crowd of inquisitive bystanders gathered around the collision scene in the field.

“A MiG-29 aircraft of the IAF crashed near Agra during a routine training sortie today, after encountering a system malfunction. The pilot manoeuvered the aircraft to ensure no damage to life or property on ground, before ejecting safely. An enquiry has been ordered by the IAF, to ascertain the cause of the accident,” the IAF posted on X.

Earlier in a similar incident, a MiG-29 fighter aircraft of the IAF had crashed on September 2 in Rajasthan. The pilot had ejected safely that time too and no loss of life was reported.